:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with a majority of the low level
C-class flare activity originating from just beyond the western limb.
Regions 4391 (N06W06, Bxo/beta) and 4393 (N13E10, Cro/beta) exhibited
signs of decay while Region 4389 (N10, L=143) decayed to plage. Region
4394 (S12E44, Axx/alpha) was split from Region 4392 (S15E41, Cso/beta),
and Region 4395 (S04E53, Bxo/beta) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 15 Mar before reaching high levels on 16 and 17
Mar due to high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected sustained positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field increased to a peak of 13 nT before settling at
8-9 nT. The Bz component of the IMF underwent several southward
deflections with the most notable reaching -8 to -10 nT. Solar wind
speeds increased to peaks near 700 km/s and phi was predominantly in a
positve solar sector.

.Forecast...
Current or near current solar wind conditions are expected to continue
on 15 Mar before beginning to gradually wane over the course of 16-17
Mar. An additional enhancement due proximity of a CME that left the Sun
on 13 Mar is possible by late on 15 Mar. Any glancing CME influences
will likely continue into 16 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 15 Mar
under continued positive polarity CH HSS effects. A chance for isolated
periods of G2 (Moderate) storming will exist as well on 15 Mar and to a
greater degree if the 13 Mar CME possesses a more Earth-directed
component than what model runs suggest. Any lingering geomagnetic
storming conditions are expected to give way to primarily unsettled to
active condtions on 16-17 Mar as positive polarity CH HSS influence
continues.